Trend reversal trading strategy “Fakey Pattern” is designed mainly for Forex and can be used on all currency pairs on any time frames.
What is the “Fakey Pattern”
A fakey pattern in the market means that a false-breakout of an inside bar pattern has occurred. In other words, a fakey is when price initially breaks one way from an inside bar pattern but then price snaps back the other direction, creating a false break of the inside bar structure.
How to trade “Fakey Pattern”
A trader buy order upon an Fakey Pattern pattern during a downtrend. A sell order should be placed upon Fakey Pattern pattern during an uptrend.
A trader should place a buy order upon a bullish “Fakey” pattern during a downtrend. A sell order should be placed upon bearish “Fakey” pattern during an uptrend. To define trend we have used 3 EMAs with 10, 25 and 50 periods.
To run a back-test we have coded a complete Fakey Pattern trading strategy as a MetaTrader 4 Expert Advisor. During preliminary analysis we have identified that the best time frame for Fakey Pattern trading strategy is 1 hour (H1).
We have run a back-test of Fakey Pattern trading strategy. For our test as a trade exit rule we have used a Trailing Stop of 30 pips which is launched after a trade has started and is modified each new 1 pip of profit. From our point of view, such approach allows to maximize profit and minimize drawdown.
We have run the test for 2010.01.01-2020.01.01 using Every Tick modelling on EURUSD-H1, using 1:1 leverage, without reinvestment, assuming spread equals 10 ticks. These are the main parameters of Fakey Pattern trading strategy performance at its non-optimized state:
|ROI||# of trades||Winning ratio||Max. drawdown|
Trading data analysis
After running the initial test of a simple non-filtered strategy we perform a trading data analysis that allows to identify possible filters to use to make the strategy more profitable reducing the drawdown simultaneously.
The following charts may give some possible insights on which filters to apply (time sessions, day of week limitation, trend strength threshold, overbought/oversold conditions, volatility range) to turn this strategy profitable should you decide to use this strategy in your investment portfolio:
Fakey Patter can be used with other indicators to filter out losing trades and make entry signals more accurate. After analysing trading data we have found the following insights which have helped us to make the Fakey Patter trading strategy profitable reducing it’s drawdown in 20 times:
- Trades that were opened at a too low and at a too high values of ADX have appeared to bring more losses when trading “Fakey Pattern” trading strategy during 2009 – 2020. ADX shows the power of the current trend. It is more reasonable to take trades at the trend start.
(ROI increase -40% -> 135%, Drawdown reduction 84.82% -> 17.77% )
- Most of the trades that were opened at a too high and a too low values of RSI were losing when trading “Fakey Pattern” trading strategy during 2009 – 2020. RSI measures the magnitude of most recent price changes to evaluate the overbought and oversold zones.
(ROI increase -4.0% -> 9.6%, Drawdown reduction 84.82% -> 26.31%)
- The majority of trades that were opened at a boundary state of RVI Signal were losing when trading “Fakey Pattern” trading strategy during 2009 – 2020. It is preferred to take trades at a more stable market.
(ROI increase -4.0% -> 16.5%, Drawdown reduction 84.82% -> 12.85%)
We have analysed data received from a test of Fakey Pattern trading strategy during 2009 — 2020 years and applied some filters such as ADX, RSI and RVI. As a result, the profitability of the strategy has increased from -4.08% up to 17.6% and it’s drawdown has reduced from 84.82% to 7.91% using leverage 1:1.
Reducing the drawdown has allowed us to increase the leverage that can be used while trading this strategy up to 1:60, which in turn, has resulted in annualized ROI increase up to 102.29%!
Reducing the drawdown has also allowed us to use risk based lot calculation. Below you can see the back-test results using $10,000 initial balance and 20% risk per trade:
|ROI||# of trades||Winning ratio||Max. drawdown|
Analyze your trading strategy!
If you have a trading strategy that you want to analyse, optimize and increase its profitability (or even turn it from losing into a profitable Forex trading strategy) – feel free to contact us! Our trading data analysis team will respond to you within 24 hours clarifying all the details needed.
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MetaTrader 4/5 https://www.nordman-algorithms.com/metatrader-programming
Disclaimer: Hypothetical or Simulated performance results have certain limitations, unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The customer is responsible for using the product at his or her own risk and “Nordman Algorithms” is not responsible for any possible losses caused by use of the product, including but not limited to losses.